Investments in alternative energy technologies and models of innovation.
article from: Bourne To Be Wild
How do we cut through the hype in the varied landscape of alternative energy technologies? From time to time, there is a lot of excitement about a great NY Times article on Solar Power technology.
Here’s Vinod Khosla’s talk on the topic:
http://www.technologyreview.com/player/08/01/MagBiofuels/3.aspx
Interesting point to note about all similar articles on Nanosolar:
1. The good news: Germany has placed huge bets on coal energy. Its dependence on coal fire plants is similar to that of the US. A serious investment like that in Germany could correlate to investments in the US.
2. The articles don’t mention what folks eventually live and die by in technology- TCO. $1 per watt sounds like zero TCO. Storage is critical too. The good news: Khosla’s talk covers this point of view. So someone has that figured out to a degree.
3. Of course, just as investments in solar power are improving cost and efficiency, investments in (recent bad boy) ethanol and coal technologies are improving the cost and efficiency of those sources of energy. Non polluting coal power plants have 35% efficiency on coal. Solar energy based approaches of the type mentioned in the article hope to get there by 2011. Anyone betting on breakthroughs (safety, TCO, etc.) in nuclear power?
While multiple approaches to the energy crisis are the only way forward, it is really going to boil down to models of innovation. Or is it?
Full article continues at: Solar Energy Technology Models
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WARNING: Investing in common equity of public companies is a high risk, high potential reward activity. Owning investments in individual alternative energy companies is for high risk investors only, and medium risk investors should consider green mutual funds, clean energy funds, renewable power index funds and other sector plays. Even then, these should be owned as part of a widely diversified portfolio. There is a gathering mania for investing in publicly-traded alternative energy companies, similar to the computer, technology, internet and banking / real estate booms of the past two decades. There will be some nasty corrections along the way, and some years from now when they come crashing down en masse, the world will still benefit from all the amazingly advanced clean and efficient energy technology created during the bull run. (Above note re-written March 2009 as my earlier prediction of a market top and a crash in the sector starting in August '09 was hastened by the credit markets collapse and began in August 2008, before the bubble had fully formed. Of all the sectors in the equity markets, clean energy has the best prospects to assume market leadership and public favour; we are bouncing aong the bottom still, and those who have followed our guidance to begin including (in a judiciously blended portfolio of cash, bonds, stocks and yes, um... real estate) green energy investment funds dollar-cost-averaging programs in Winter and Spring of 2009 are well positioned for longterm capital growth.)
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