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Friday, December 21, 2007

Schaeffer likes FSLR despite PE of 178, cites proft growth

article from:

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/18/best-stocks-for-2008-first-solar-fslr/

Our favorite speculative play for 2008 is First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)," says Bernie Schaeffer, editor of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"First Solar is a specialized semiconductor company that is a play on the alternative-energy theme. FSLR designs, manufactures and sells solar electric power modules. With a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 178 and the stock posting gains of nearly 700% in 2007, investors in FSLR should expect a potentially wild ride.

"Despite the 'internet bubble-like' appreciation in the stock, we think the trend can continue, as this is a company with actual earnings and its share of naysayers. The skepticism is an indication that there is sideline buying power that can drive the equity even higher in the months to come.

"FSLR's third-quarter earnings report was spectacular. Net income of 58 cents per share easily topped Wall Street's estimate of 19 cents per share, sending the stock soaring on the news. The year-over-year earnings growth rate in the third quarter was an outstanding 729%.
"But impressive earnings and strong price action have not been enough to convince the shorts. Since its IPO in November 2006, short interest has increased from 920,000 shares to the current six million shares.

"Short interest as a percentage of float is a whopping 32%. Further price appreciation could send the shorts scrambling to cover their positions, keeping the current uptrend intact as we move through 2008."

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WARNING: Investing in common equity of public companies is a high risk, high potential reward activity. Owning investments in individual alternative energy companies is for high risk investors only, and medium risk investors should consider green mutual funds, clean energy funds, renewable power index funds and other sector plays. Even then, these should be owned as part of a widely diversified portfolio. There is a gathering mania for investing in publicly-traded alternative energy companies, similar to the computer, technology, internet and banking / real estate booms of the past two decades. There will be some nasty corrections along the way, and some years from now when they come crashing down en masse, the world will still benefit from all the amazingly advanced clean and efficient energy technology created during the bull run. (Above note re-written March 2009 as my earlier prediction of a market top and a crash in the sector starting in August '09 was hastened by the credit markets collapse and began in August 2008, before the bubble had fully formed. Of all the sectors in the equity markets, clean energy has the best prospects to assume market leadership and public favour; we are bouncing aong the bottom still, and those who have followed our guidance to begin including (in a judiciously blended portfolio of cash, bonds, stocks and yes, um... real estate) green energy investment funds dollar-cost-averaging programs in Winter and Spring of 2009 are well positioned for longterm capital growth.)

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