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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Solar Energy Sector Stocks News and Views; REC, SPWR

Many solar stocks have traded 25%to 50% below their 52 week highs in recent days, and some would argue these represent bargains in renewable energy stock sector.

Bloomberg's David Wilson shares his views the decline in alternative energy stocks:

"Makers of solar-power equipment have followed the lead of ethanol producers, another segment of the alternative-energy industry, by going through a boom-and-bust cycle in stock markets worldwide.

The World Solar Energy Index, consisting of 10 of the industry's biggest members, has declined 37 percent this year after soaring almost 21-fold in the last four years. Renewable Energy Corp., the worst performer among the index's five most- heavily weighed components, has tumbled 48 percent.

Rising costs have contributed to the retreat. Renewable Energy, based in Hovik, Norway, said this month that research and development spending will climb fourfold through 2010. The company also wants to build three new solar-cell factories and add a plant for making polysilicon, a type of purified silicon used in cells.

The index peaked in December, about 18 months after a surge in ethanol makers ended. Pacific Ethanol Inc., for one, has lost 87 percent since setting an all-time high in May 2006."


MSN Moneycentral reports Piper Jaffray has upgraded Sunpower Corp (SPWR) to Buy from Neutral and raised their target to $105 from $94 on future earnings strength, saying shares of SPWR have lost most of its valuation premium relative to competitors. The firm says:

1) the ASP outlook is clearly better than they had anticipated a year ago

2) their thesis for SPWR poly supply risks have played out as anticipated with two disappointing quarters of module supply constraint. The firm says they have evidence that M. Setek is ramping on track and schedule for a substantial ramp after an upcoming plant closure for government inspection.


Online Renewable Energy Resources:


The International Energy Agency has a program for renewable power testing called the Solar Heating and Cooling Programme. It was established in 1977, as one of the first programmes of the International Energy Agency. The Programme�s work is unique in that it is accomplished through the international collaborative effort of experts from Member countries and the European Commission.


The Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE) is a great resource for alternative energy planning in the USA. DSIRE is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility, and federal incentives that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency.

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WARNING: Investing in common equity of public companies is a high risk, high potential reward activity. Owning investments in individual alternative energy companies is for high risk investors only, and medium risk investors should consider green mutual funds, clean energy funds, renewable power index funds and other sector plays. Even then, these should be owned as part of a widely diversified portfolio. There is a gathering mania for investing in publicly-traded alternative energy companies, similar to the computer, technology, internet and banking / real estate booms of the past two decades. There will be some nasty corrections along the way, and some years from now when they come crashing down en masse, the world will still benefit from all the amazingly advanced clean and efficient energy technology created during the bull run. (Above note re-written March 2009 as my earlier prediction of a market top and a crash in the sector starting in August '09 was hastened by the credit markets collapse and began in August 2008, before the bubble had fully formed. Of all the sectors in the equity markets, clean energy has the best prospects to assume market leadership and public favour; we are bouncing aong the bottom still, and those who have followed our guidance to begin including (in a judiciously blended portfolio of cash, bonds, stocks and yes, um... real estate) green energy investment funds dollar-cost-averaging programs in Winter and Spring of 2009 are well positioned for longterm capital growth.)

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