Since it was written, CPST has risen to $2.72, while FCEL has dropped to $6.94, having been clubbed in recent days by widening 3rd quarter losses. Both names may still offer excellent capital gains potential for the speculative and long term investors looking to build diversified portfolios of emerging clean energy technology growth stocks.
Happy Sunday!
Joe T
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) technology, distributed generation
(excerpted from a late '07 post by Tom Konrad on AltEnergyStocks.com)
Capstone Microturbine (NasdaqGM:CPST) $1.62 (30dec07), and
FuelCell Energy Inc. (NasdaqGM:FCEL) $10.30 (30dec07)
I'm bullish on both these companies because I'm bullish on distributed generation and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) technologies. My intuition is that 2008 or 2009 will be the year that distributed generation and CHP grab the attention of Wall Street, the way thin-film PV stole the show in 2007. Both FuelCell and Capstone stand to benefit. They may even get a boost from making ethanol production more efficient.
Regular readers may be surprised that I am recommending a fuel cell stock, since I call Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles "a politically inspired boondoggle." But there are more types of fuel cells than hydrogen: molten carbonate or solid oxide fuel cells. FCEL makes a variant of molten carbonate fuel cell, called the Direct Fuel Cell (DFC), a different beast than the hydrogen fuel cells, because it can work without an external mechanism to reform the hydrogen.
FuelCell's DFCs burn methane rather than hydrogen, and are very tolerant not only of low heat content methane (which is often produced in anaerobic digestion or wastewater treatment.) Note that on page 10 of this EPA study [.pdf] of combined heat and power installations at wastewater treatment plants, a 300kW fuel cell requires a less expensive fuel treatment pressurization facility than a much smaller microturbine system. This is almost certainly due to the lower need for fuel pressurization.
Biogas can be a particularly tricky fuel given the presence of impurities such as H2S and siloxanes which build up as deposits in combustion chambers. Microturbines, fuel cells, and internal combustion engines need fuel treatment if siloxanes (which are usually present in waste water treatment plants as a byproduct of deodorants) are present. Fuel cells and reciprocating engines also require the removal of H2S. Nevertheless, wastewater treatment facilities combine an abundant source of free fuel (biogas) with a need for heating, and so present excellent opportunities for CHP.
Fuel cells are more efficient (47% fuel to electricity conversion) than comparably sized microturbines (30-35%) or internal combustion generators (about 40%), which not only translates into fuel savings (or higher electricity output), but also leads to only 85% or less CO2 emissions than the less expensive (per kW) or internal combustion generators. Both microturbines and fuel cells get a large system efficiency boost when the heat is also used; both FuelCell and Capstone claim that their products can reach 80% overall efficiency in a CHP context, while the relatively small size of microturbines and fuel cells are particularly well suited to small scale industrial facilities and commercial buildings.
Rising fuel prices make efficient energy generation important and new fuel sources such as biogas and other waste gasses (such as the Ford plant using a DFC to make electricity from paint fumes) will present opportunities for both DFCs and microturbines in CHP and distributed generation applications. While DFCs have the advantage of working well on low energy content gas, microturbines are better suited to many projects due to their smaller size, and more fuel flexibility. Microturbines are much more tolerant of a wide variety of fuels, and can even handle the H2S in digester gas, as noted above. Capstone sells versions which can run on liquid fuels such as diesel, propane, and kerosene. While fuel cells also have this capability, they are less tolerant of impurities, and FuelCell does not currently sell products for these markets.
One final advantage for microturbines is their ability to ramp up and down quickly, meaning they can used in remote locations with irregular fuel supplies, or when demand for electricity is not constant. DFCs are less able to ramp up and down because of the need to maintain a high temperature in the fuel cell stacks, so they will only be used when they can be always on, but their ability to supplement biogas with natural gas from the pipeline system still means that they can be used with fuel of variable availability.
FuelCell's DFC and Capstone's microturbines should be able to compete effectively with internal combustion engines in distributed generation applications, since reciprocating engines are too large for many potential projects. Rising energy prices and tightening emissions limits should allow DFCs to slowly increase their market share in a rapidly growing market. Incidentally, there has also been a successful test of a fuel cell/microturbine hybrid system [.pdf], with a Capstone turbine generating electricity from the waste heat of a fuel cell.
Capstone finished 2008 with a year-end surge because of new rules which streamline the installation of microturbines in New York City, but could easily continue higher, if I am right about distributed generation taking off. The new NYC guidelines could easily be one sign of the beginning of this trend. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small price retreat in January. It may be wise to wait a couple weeks and see what happens with CPST.
Above analysis excerpted from: 10 Alternative Energy Stocks for 2008
More Renewable Energy Investing links:
WindIntell.com Wind Energy Stocks Investing
Geotherma.info Geothermal Power Investments
Solar Power Stocks, Alternative Energy Companies
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