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Saturday, November 17, 2007

China's CSIQ delivering big solar energy revenue

Sunny Day For Canadian Solar
Carl Gutierrez, forbes.com / AP

Contracts continue to roll in for Canadian Solar.

On Friday, shares of the Chinese solar company rose 14.7%, or $2.27, to close at $17.76 on the Nasdaq after it announced it penned a deal to deliver solar panels with 60 megawatts worth of yearly generating capacity for projects in Spain, expanding its position in a key corner of the solar market.

Canadian Solar said it would start delivering the shipments to the German City Solar Group, which is managing the projects, immediately. It expects installation to be complete by the summer.

The company did not disclose financial terms of the agreement.

Canadian Solar recently delivered 11.7 megawatts worth of solar modules to City Solar for three large-scale solar power projects in Germany.

Spain and Germany are considered key markets for the solar industry because of government incentives that have rapidly accelerated demand. Germany generates the most solar energy from photovoltaic panels in the world, with Spain ranking fourth behind the U.S., according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

On Wednesday, Canadian Solar led its sector’s rise on the stock market after it announced a very strong quarterly report due to strong demand and operational improvements. (See “Sunny Day For the Solar Sector”)

Friday's rise came on the same day Suntech Power shares rose $5.04, or 7.9%, to $69.42. The rise came in the wake of its quarterly results and subsequent analyst commentary (See "Sunnier On Suntech").

Lehman Brothers analyst Vishal Shah raised his target price for the company to $80 from $65 and maintained a "Buy” rating, saying strong demand, capacity expansion and silicon procurement helped the company beat Wall Street expectations for the third quarter.

"We maintain our constructive view on the longer term growth outlook of Suntech given its scale, technology and cost leadership," Shah said.

Jefferies analyst Paul Clegg raised his price target to $76 from $45 and raised his estimates Friday, saying the company is on its way to exceeding top line and earnings per share expectations going forward because it’s speeding up manufacturing capacity and production faster than expected.

But Clegg warned there are risks for the stock if there are disruptions in subsidies or excess inventory which will push down prices.

Bringing the price of solar power down to an equivalent price with grid power is a top goal for the solar industry because it will help push solar products into the mainstream. Solar products are expensive due at least partially to high costs for polysilicon, which is in high demand and short supply. Investors favor fixed-price contracts, which reduces the risk of high spot prices.

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WARNING: Investing in common equity of public companies is a high risk, high potential reward activity. Owning investments in individual alternative energy companies is for high risk investors only, and medium risk investors should consider green mutual funds, clean energy funds, renewable power index funds and other sector plays. Even then, these should be owned as part of a widely diversified portfolio. There is a gathering mania for investing in publicly-traded alternative energy companies, similar to the computer, technology, internet and banking / real estate booms of the past two decades. There will be some nasty corrections along the way, and some years from now when they come crashing down en masse, the world will still benefit from all the amazingly advanced clean and efficient energy technology created during the bull run. (Above note re-written March 2009 as my earlier prediction of a market top and a crash in the sector starting in August '09 was hastened by the credit markets collapse and began in August 2008, before the bubble had fully formed. Of all the sectors in the equity markets, clean energy has the best prospects to assume market leadership and public favour; we are bouncing aong the bottom still, and those who have followed our guidance to begin including (in a judiciously blended portfolio of cash, bonds, stocks and yes, um... real estate) green energy investment funds dollar-cost-averaging programs in Winter and Spring of 2009 are well positioned for longterm capital growth.)

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