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Monday, November 5, 2007

Green Energy Conference in Tel Aviv sees clean power profits

article from:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/920238.html

What's green, grows and isn't a bubble?

By Michael Rochvarger and TheMarker

Green is the name of the game, to be sure. But does it make economic sense for investors? And does it matter if it does or doesn't? Those were the burning question that TheMarker sought to address in the Green Energy Conference it hosted in Tel Aviv yesterday together with the Life & Environment organization. Analyst Chen Altshuler may have touched on the crux of the matter by pointing out that bubble or not, humans are poisoning their nest and that has to change. Appropriately, the investments panel of the Green Energy Conference began with a bang after the moderator, TheMarker editor Eytan Avriel, chose to say something provocative: "(Energy baron) Yossi Maiman told TheMarker Magazine that green energy might be a bubble, driven by non-economic considerations. Is it?"

No, answered the experts, starting with Ormat Industries heir Yoram Bronicki: "Calling it a bubble would be excessive. Some companies have survived, like us, and Solel (solar energy technology)." Naturally, not all "green energy" companies are golden egg-layers and some represent the dream rather than the doable, he admits: Investor beware.

Chen Altshuler, founder of Altshuler brokerage's Green mutual fund, admits that there are a lot of artificially inflated shares out there. "But when it comes to green energy, there are real humans who will suffer unless emissions of pollutants are reduced. The steel and cement industries must change their ways. It isn't a bubble and it isn't a trend, it's here to stay," she said.

Roy Vermos of the Psagot Ofek investment firm begged to point out that there's a difference between the direction of the markets and share price behavior. "Anybody who invested in Internet stocks lost his pants, but it's a tremendous field with vast potential," he suggested. As for green energy, which covers everything from biodiesel to geothermal power plants to solar and wind-energy collectors to heat recovery, he doesn't see a bubble, he sees the future.

The question isn't only whether "green energy" is hot today: It is. (So is the weather, which is the problem.) And the question isn't only whether the companies are making real advances; some are. The question is also whether people will flock to invest in these technologies in the future, and that's anybody's guess. Nobody's yet invented a crystal ball or time machine, and in the absence of tarot cards that actually work, it's guesswork. Educated guesswork. "The scope of investment in (green energy) will be huge," predicts Ilan Birenfeld, managing partner at Deloitte Brightman-Almagor, but he has a qualification to offer: "This is something that has to be led at the cultural level as well, at the organizational level and at the level of values, with the public and private sectors operating hand in hand."

The raison d'etre of the Life & Environment organization is to influence the government, which - it explains on its Web site - has too much control. "Israel's economy is highly centralized and heavily dependent on government intervention and guidance," the organization chaired by Dani Rabinovits writes. Abroad companies are developing a sense of social and environmental accountability, it says, whether to avoid risk or embarrassing days in court, but corporate Israel has been slow to follow suit. It is also true that more and more Israeli companies are taking a greener attitude, whether by persuasion or because of bludgeoning by public opinion. Life & Environment hopes to spur dialog between the business sector and government in order to achieve that Holy Grail of green goals: sustainable development.

And for another unhappy truism, courtesy of Avi Brenmiller of growing solar energy company Solel: "In Israel, green economics sometimes collides with the interests of Big Business. It can take a very long time to obtain regulatory approvals." Meanwhile, in a sign of the times, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has launched the Maala-20 of Socially Responsible Investing Index, which tracks the 20 companies with the largest market caps on the Maala social responsibility rating. That may have led to the next question by moderator Avriel: "What is driving green energy more: environmental awareness, or pure economic calculations?" Roy Vermos of Psagot is candid: If you run an investment fund, then your goal is one and only one - to maximize returns while minimizing risk. But, he added: "When you look at the Maala index, you find that companies with a developed sense of social responsibility outperform the benchmark over time."

Altshuler admits that his company's funds have "little choice" but to invest in the large-cap polluters like Israel Chemicals and Makhteshim Agan. But they're gradually finding answers among the green energy group, too, she says. Which in most cases is Ormat Industries, Avriel points out. Israel has, so far, only one Ormat.

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WARNING: Investing in common equity of public companies is a high risk, high potential reward activity. Owning investments in individual alternative energy companies is for high risk investors only, and medium risk investors should consider green mutual funds, clean energy funds, renewable power index funds and other sector plays. Even then, these should be owned as part of a widely diversified portfolio. There is a gathering mania for investing in publicly-traded alternative energy companies, similar to the computer, technology, internet and banking / real estate booms of the past two decades. There will be some nasty corrections along the way, and some years from now when they come crashing down en masse, the world will still benefit from all the amazingly advanced clean and efficient energy technology created during the bull run. (Above note re-written March 2009 as my earlier prediction of a market top and a crash in the sector starting in August '09 was hastened by the credit markets collapse and began in August 2008, before the bubble had fully formed. Of all the sectors in the equity markets, clean energy has the best prospects to assume market leadership and public favour; we are bouncing aong the bottom still, and those who have followed our guidance to begin including (in a judiciously blended portfolio of cash, bonds, stocks and yes, um... real estate) green energy investment funds dollar-cost-averaging programs in Winter and Spring of 2009 are well positioned for longterm capital growth.)

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